SHFE tin contracts fluctuated downward, while downstream enterprises maintained a wait-and-see attitude. [SMM Tin Midday Review]

On the afternoon of November 14, 2025, the most-traded SHFE tin contract closed at 291,920 yuan/mt, down 1.61% from the previous day. This morning, SHFE tin contracts fluctuated downward, failing to sustain gains after yesterday's sharp rise and continuing to slide from highs. The London Metal Exchange (LME) tin contract recently showed relative weakness, with LME tin temporarily quoted at $36,855/mt, down 0.57%.

The core driver behind recent tin price strength stems from persistently tight supply. The resumption of tin mining in Myanmar's Wa region progressed slowly; although mining permits were obtained, actual production restarts fell far short of expectations due to multiple constraints, including an early rainy season, high mining costs, and slow repair of transport routes. In the first three quarters, China's imports of tin concentrates from Myanmar by physical content dropped sharply by about 70% YoY. Meanwhile, Indonesia's crackdown on illegal tin mining and the transfer of six sealed smelters to state-owned enterprise PT Timah led to a sharp decline in Indonesia's tin ingot exports in October, further exacerbating global tight supply. Domestic smelters faced persistently low tin concentrate TCs, with raw material inventories continuing to decline, significantly constraining primary tin production.

Short term, tin prices are expected to hover at highs amid the tussle between supply constraints and diverging demand. Macro front, the end of the US government shutdown and US Fed monetary policy expectations exerted a broad impact on the nonferrous metals sector. Fundamental focus remains on the progress of mine resumptions in Myanmar and the recovery of Indonesian exports. If the supply side sees no substantial improvement, tin price averages are expected to remain firm, but caution is warranted against high prices dampening downstream demand and volatility risks from year-end liquidity changes.